IF the next Pope is Francis 2.0, does that mean the Holy Ghost has forsaken us?

What role does the Holy Spirit play in the election of a pope, especially when the chosen pontiff seems to diverge from ‘traditional expectations’?

Each week, writing Radical Fidelity serves as a kind of spiritual discipline—part catharsis, part catechesis (if only for myself), a yearning for communion, a means of wrestling with my Catholic faith, and a reflection of all that exists in between.

The topics I explore often arise from what I like to believe are Holy Spirit-prompted nudges—current events in the Catholic world, impromptu debates I stumble into (with others or with myself), the honest questions of young people I journey alongside, and the faith struggles faced by those dearest to me.

And yet, days like today lay bare the tangled mess of my efforts. My attempts to make sense of it all often feel so clumsy, so inadequate, that I find myself gripped by shame and tempted to abandon this project entirely. That temptation grows stronger as I encounter more and more faithful men and women whose holiness and theological acumen far outshine mine. In such moments, quitting begins to look like wisdom.

But here I am—still writing. A stubborn, possibly foolish attempt to bear witness amidst the darkness that the enemies of Christ have cast over His Church, and over the faith of those who love Him and the Bride He founded.

This very article was born during one of South Africa’s infamous bouts of load shedding. (For the blessedly unacquainted: load shedding is a euphemism for planned power cuts, born of socialist-communist mismanagement. Don’t let the Western media paint South Africa in pastel hues; those who seek refuge in the United States at the invitation of President Donald Trump do so with cause.) But I digress.

Although my beloved and I have recently agreed to dial down both the frequency and the fervor of our Catholic debates, the death of Pope Francis upset that truce. Once again, we found ourselves discussing the next conclave—and the kind of papacy that might emerge from it.

Eventually, I blurted out the question that had been gnawing at me: "But what do we do if the next pope is an even more intense version of Francis? What does that say about the Holy Ghost?"

That question unsettled me. On the surface, every Catholic knows (or should know) that the Holy Spirit guides the selection of a pope. But beneath that doctrinal assurance lies a deep unease shared by many traditional Catholics—myself included. We fear a future where the outcome of the conclave feels less like divine providence and more like ecclesial calamity. And so the honest, uncomfortable question remains: How do we in good conscience continue proclaiming the ‘gates-of-hell-will-not-prevail’ narrative when it sometimes feels more like wishful thinking than lived reality?

So, as the College of Cardinals prepares to convene in the Sistine Chapel, invoking the ancient hymn "Veni, Sancte Spiritus"—"Come, Holy Spirit"—I will attempt to process the profound question: What role does the Holy Spirit play in the election of a pope, especially when the chosen pontiff seems to diverge from ‘traditional expectations’?

As I said, Catholic doctrine affirms that the Holy Spirit is ever-present, guiding the Church through the ages. That is the easy but not simple answer, taking into account the confusing times in which we live. However, this guidance does not seem to equate to a deterministic selection of the pope.

At the heart of Catholic teaching lies a tension between divine guidance and human freedom. The Magisterium has always insisted that the Holy Spirit is invoked to assist the College of Cardinals in discerning the will of Christ for His Church—even while preserving the freedom of each elector to cooperate with or resist that grace. (This last bit is important to constantly keep in the back of your mind, that is, if you don’t want to lose your mind!)

Thus the election of a “bad pope” does not mean that the Spirit has abandoned the Church; rather, it testifies to the reality that, in God’s permissive will, human choices—even erroneous ones—are allowed so that greater goods may emerge, the faithful may be purified, and the indefectibility of the Church’s teaching office is manifest even through imperfect instruments.

Traditional sources—from the First Vatican Council’s Pastor Aeternus to Benedict XVI’s reflections—stress that the Spirit does not mechanically dictate a choice but ensures that the faith and morals of the Church are not compromised.

The Holy Spirit and the Conclave’s Sacred Rites

Long before ballots are cast, the conclave’s ritual summons the Paraclete. The apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis (John Paul II, 1996) prescribes that, on the morning of the first ballot, the cardinals celebrate Holy Mass and invoke the Spirit’s gifts of counsel and wisdom for their deliberations. As they enter the Sistine Chapel, all chant the ancient sequence Veni, Sancte Spiritus, explicitly acknowledging that without divine aid, human discussions alone cannot yield that which is truly for the good of the whole Church.

The solemnity is no mere formality. The conclave’s seclusion, the oath of secrecy, and the burning of ballots with chemicals to produce black or white smoke are designed to forestall secular interference and heighten reliance on supernatural assistance. In that “sacred synod,” the cardinals ask for the Spirit’s sevenfold gifts—especially counsel (to judge rightly) and fortitude (to choose bravely)—so that the new pontiff may be fit to feed Christ’s flock.

Magisterial Foundations - Lumen Gentium and Pastor Aeternus

(I am hesitantly going to explore the following since it relates to “that dreaded Council”). The Second Vatican Council enshrined the conclave itself within the life of the Church “gathered together in the Holy Spirit” ( Lumen Gentium §23) . By this, the Council taught that the entire “People of God”, through their representatives, discern the will of Christ under the Spirit’s guidance. Yet Vatican II did not suggest a mechanical guarantee of perfection; rather it affirmed that the Spirit ensures continuity of mission and truth, even when individual shepherds prove flawed.

A century earlier, the First Vatican Council’s Pastor Aeternus (1870) had defined the Pope’s primacy and infallibility in matters of faith and morals—promising that, “by divine assistance promised to him in blessed Peter,” he is protected from error when teaching ex cathedra . Importantly, Pastor Aeternus distinguishes personal holiness from the charism of infallibility: the Spirit safeguards the Pope’s official teaching, not his private conduct. Thus one may encounter pontiffs of dubious morality without threatening the deposit of faith.

Freedom, Permissive Will, and the Holy Ghost’s “Non-Coercive” Guidance

How, then, can “bad popes” occur if the Holy Ghost is present? The answer lies in the Holy Ghost’s respect for human freedom. As Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI) explained in 1997, “the Holy Spirit does not exactly take control of the affair, but rather—like a good educator—leaves us much space, much freedom, without entirely abandoning us”. The Spirit’s work is persuasive, not coercive: He enlightens the mind to the truth and inclines the will toward the good, yet electors may resist that prompt.

Dr. Jeffrey Mirus elaborates that the Holy Ghost “prompts all involved to cast their votes for the good of the Church,” forming their judgment, but does not override their freedom; should cardinals rather yield to factionalism, worldly ambition, or error though, the result may be a pontiff whose personal vision diverges from Tradition.

This teaching coheres with classical theology: Augustine affirmed that God permits evils so that a greater good may result; Aquinas taught that divine providence governs even human wrongdoing, drawing good from evil; and Francisco Suarez held that in elections, God actualizes His will through the free acts of creatures, allowing missteps within His permissive plan.

Historical Examples of “Bad Popes”

I have written an article previously on the subject of “bad popes”, for which I got a lot of flak, and rightly so. Many of my critics pointed out that although there were many “morally bad popes” in the past, never was there a Pope who so systematically and intentionally went about dismantling and changing the Catholic Faith as Pope Francis did. My critics were right.

That said, let's revisit a few of those cases for the sake of this article.

Church history regrettably records pontificates that scandalized the faithful and emboldened enemies of the Faith. Among the most notorious:

• Pope John XII (955–964), appointed in adolescence by his father, indulged in violence, simony, and concubinage, even convening a synod to condemn his predecessor’s corpse (the Cadaver Synod) .

• Pope Benedict IX (1032–1044, 1045, 1047–1048), infamous for selling the papacy three times to fund his pleasures, stands as a stark case of corruption at the top of the Church.

• Pope Urban VI (1378–1389), after a disputed election, persecuted cardinals and unleashed terror in Rome, precipitating the Western Schism.

• Pope Alexander VI (1492–1503), Rodrigo Borgia, used his office to enrich his children, prompting Erasmus to lament that the papacy had become “the greatest court of vice in all Europe”.

Modern lists confirm these and others—including Boniface VIII, Leo X, Clement VII—among the worst popes, demonstrating that no era was immune to human frailty at the See of Peter.

Does the Holy Spirit “Desert” the Church?

When scandal follows a problematic pontificate, some despair that the Spirit has abandoned us. Yet the Church distinguishes between the personal failings of a pope and the indefectible guidance promised to the Church. Pastor Aeternus guarantees that “the Roman Pontiff, when he speaks ex cathedra…, is possessed of that infallibility with which the divine Redeemer willed his Church to be endowed”; it does not promise moral impeccability. Papal infallibility applies narrowly to definitive teaching on faith and morals, not to every word or action of the pontiff.

Nor has the Spirit withdrawn from the sacraments, councils, or the sensus fidelium. Lumen Gentium affirms that the Holy Ghost “leads people to the peaceful fruits of righteousness” and preserves the Church “until the end of time”. The very convocation of cardinals, the global communion of prayer, and the subsequent acceptance of a new pope attest to the Holy Ghost’s ongoing work.

Divine Providence, Trial, and Purification

Why, then, does God permit the election of a flawed shepherd? Traditional theologians offer complementary answers:

1. Human Freedom. By granting true freedom, God allows even his highest servants to choose poorly. The risk of error is the price of authentic cooperation with grace.

2. Permissive Will. God’s permissive will allows errors so that, by trial, the Church may be purified and renewed. As Revelation 3:19 warns, “Those whom I love, I reprove and chastise”; difficult papacies can awaken the faithful to renewed vigilance.

3. Greater Good. Augustine and Aquinas teach that God permits some evils to bring about a greater good—whether reform, martyrdom, or deeper trust in Christ.

4. Preservation of Doctrine, Not of Administration. The Spirit protects the deposit of faith, even if administrative failures occur. Thus the Church emerges intact, though often chastened.

As one Catholic platform observes, “the Spirit does not tire, nor does Christian hope disappoint. Our job is to pray, work, and trust”.

Toward the Next Conclave

In these days of speculation and expectation, Catholics are right to pray fervently for a pontiff who upholds ancient liturgy, doctrine, and discipline. Yet our hope rests not in human agents but in the Holy Ghost, who “will guide you into all truth” (John 16:13) . As the conclave ballots proceed, let us remember:

• The invocation Veni, Sancte Spiritus is more than ritual: it is our plea for divine counsel.

• Human freedom means electors may err—but the Spirit can bring good even from error.

• The promise of infallibility secures the Church’s teaching, not the personal holiness of any pope.

• Divine providence can use even a troubled pontificate to purify the faithful and foster reform.

Let every Catholic, then, unite prayerfully with the universal Church. Let us implore the Paraclete for wisdom, fortitude, and right judgment. And when white smoke heralds the new pope, let us entrust him—whatever his background—to the same Holy Ghost who has guided Peter’s successors for two millennia. For though individual pastors may falter, the Church herself, “built on the rock,” will never be overcome .

In that confidence, let us await the fresh outpouring of the Holy Ghost upon the conclave, certain that God’s promise endures: “I am with you always, to the close of the age” (Matthew 28:20). Our duty is to pray, to trust, and to labor for the Church’s renewal—knowing that the Holy Ghost, though leaving us free, will not abandon the Bride of Christ.

Ave Christus Rex!

Recognise & Resist!

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